Follow the Oil

Insurance: War-risk premium ~0.2-0.4% of hull value (from 0.125% pre-crisis), ~+$250k per large-tanker transit

Crude firmed back toward five-month highs on Fri Oct. 30 after easing two days — WTI holding above $103 and Brent near $115.7 (Wed Oct. 28 settle Brent $115.32 / WTI $102.78) — as fresh Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks and Houthi strikes on Saudi energy offset reported US-Iran de-escalation (VP Vance's Qatar-relayed letter and a Qatari draft Tehran disputes, with a reply expected by week's end). Iran's IRGC claimed three-to-four mined tankers overnight on an 'unauthorized' southern route; UKMTO confirmed one ship afire near Khasab while CENTCOM called the mine claim 'a lie' and says it has redirected 138 Iran-bound vessels. The strait stays effectively shut to routine traffic (~14 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). Brent is on track for ~+14% in October. OPEC+ reviews output Sunday Nov. 1.

1. 2026-10-15Partially blocked

   Blockade day 229 (Thu Oct 15, ~05:06 UTC overnight re-verify). Crude eased overnight to ~Brent $104.5 / WTI $93.9 (HDFC Sky: Brent -~1.5%) as Washington signaled it may relax ‘shadow-fleet’ shipping sanctions, trimming part of the war-risk premium after Wed’s Brent $106.06 / WTI $95.09 settle. The Oct 13 Houthi missile on Aramco’s Dhahran HQ (limited fire, no casualties) and a record week of Iranian Hormuz tanker attacks keep supply at risk; the IEA warned diesel constraints may persist into 2027. CENTCOM keeps the blockade enforced. AAA national gas ~$4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.18. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.HDFC Sky / CNBC / Al Jazeera / EIA / AAA

2. 2026-10-15Partially blocked

   Blockade day 230 (Thu Oct 15, ~13:18 UTC midday re-verify). Crude held lower after easing overnight — Brent ~$104 / WTI ~$94-95 (FXEmpire: WTI ~$94.81; oilprice.com ~$95.2) — as Washington weighed relaxing ‘shadow-fleet’ sanctions on Russian tankers, trimming the war-risk premium after Wed’s Brent $106.06 / WTI $95.09 settle. A record week of Iranian Hormuz tanker attacks and the Oct 13 strike on Aramco’s Dhahran HQ keep supply at risk; the IEA trimmed its 2026 demand outlook and flagged diesel strains into 2027. CENTCOM keeps the blockade enforced (~14 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). AAA national gas ~$4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.18. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.FXEmpire / CNBC / IEA / AAA / EIA

3. 2026-10-15Partially blocked

   Blockade day 230 (Thu Oct 15, ~21:14 UTC US-close re-verify). Crude held its weekly retreat — Brent near $104 / WTI ~$94-95, down from Wed's $106.06 / $95.09 settle — as signals that Washington may ease sanctions on 'shadow-fleet' tankers trimmed the war-risk premium; a large US crude inventory draw cushioned the drop and lifted WTI. The Oct 13 Houthi strike on Aramco's Dhahran HQ and a record week of Hormuz tanker attacks keep supply at risk; CENTCOM keeps the blockade enforced (~14 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). AAA national gas ~$4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.18. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.Yahoo Finance / Grafa / CNBC / EIA / AAA

4. 2026-10-16Partially blocked

   Blockade day 231 (Fri Oct 16, ~21:13 UTC US-close re-verify). Crude ended the week elevated — Brent ~$105.9 / WTI ~$97.7 after Thursday’s $105.92 / $97.97 settles — holding a weekly gain on an ~8.6M-barrel US crude inventory draw and persistent Strait of Hormuz risk (a tanker was reported struck Oct 16), partly offset by higher Hormuz loadings, Saudi pipeline flows and an IEA diesel release. OPEC+ left November targets unchanged. US equities closed lower (Nasdaq ~-2%) as the AI-chip rout resumed. AAA national gas ~$4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC after hot CPI and PPI.Arbiterz / BigGo / CNBC / AAA / EIA

5. 2026-10-17Partially blocked

   Blockade day 232 (Sat Oct 17, ~05:06 UTC overnight re-verify). Crude ended the week sharply higher: Brent settled $109.86 (+3.7%, briefly topping $110 for the first time since May) and WTI $101.41 (+3.5%) after another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, the GFS Pride was sunk earlier in the week, Russian refinery disruptions and an ~8.6M-barrel US crude draw. The IEA fast-tracked ~100M barrels of emergency reserves, including >20M barrels of diesel. CENTCOM says it has redirected 135 commercial vessels since the July 14 blockade resumption. AAA national gas ~$4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.The Hill / EnergyNow / gCaptain / AAA / EIA

6. 2026-10-17Partially blocked

   Blockade day 232 (Sat Oct 17, ~21:05 UTC evening re-verify). With US markets closed for the weekend, crude held Friday's five-month-high settles — Brent $109.86 (briefly above $110 for the first time since May) and WTI $101.41 — as the Strait of Hormuz tanker war escalated: the IRGC said two more tankers struck mines on Oct 17 and the UKMTO logged at least 10 vessels attacked near the strait in a week, a record for the war. CENTCOM says it has redirected 135 commercial vessels since the July 14 resumption. AAA national gas eased to ~$4.31/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.BOE Report / Iran News Wire / The Hill / AAA

7. 2026-10-18Partially blocked

   Blockade day 233 (Sun Oct 18, ~05:08 UTC overnight re-verify). With US markets closed for the weekend, crude held Friday's five-month-high settles — Brent $109.86 (briefly above $110 for the first time since May) and WTI $101.41 — as the Hormuz tanker war hit a record pitch: the IRGC said a second oil supertanker struck a mine and caught fire on Oct 17 and the UKMTO logged at least 10 vessels attacked near the strait in a week, a war record. CENTCOM says it has redirected 135 commercial vessels since the July 14 resumption. AAA national gas ~$4.31/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.BOE Report / Al Jazeera / The Hill / AAA

8. 2026-10-18Partially blocked

   Blockade day 233 (Sun Oct 18, ~13:01 UTC midday re-verify). With US markets closed for the weekend, crude held Friday's five-month-high settles — Brent $109.86 (briefly above $110 for the first time since May) and WTI $101.41 — as the Strait of Hormuz tanker war stayed at a record pitch: Iran's IRGC says two laden supertankers struck mines Oct 16-17 and insists the strait is closed, while CENTCOM rejects the mine claims as 'disinformation,' says ~97% of ships transit safely and that it has redirected 138 commercial vessels since the July 14 resumption. The UKMTO has logged 10+ vessels attacked near the strait in a week, a war record. AAA national gas ~$4.30/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.The Hill / Al Jazeera / ANI / AAA

9. 2026-10-18Partially blocked

   Blockade day 234 (Sun Oct 18, ~21:05 UTC evening re-verify). With US markets closed for the weekend, crude held Friday's five-month-high settles — Brent $109.86 (briefly above $110 for the first time since May) and WTI $101.41. The Hormuz tanker war stayed at a record pitch: the IRGC claimed fresh tanker blasts on 'unauthorized' routes and insisted the strait is closed, while Iran's foreign minister said Sunday the waterway is 'reopening' to commercial traffic and that seven-day ceasefire conditions remain open; CENTCOM calls the mine claims disinformation and says ~97% of ships transit safely, with ~138 vessels redirected since July 14. The Singapore-flagged GFS Pride sank under tow earlier in the week. AAA national gas ~$4.30/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.CBS News / BOE Report / The Hill / AAA

10. 2026-10-19Partially blocked

    Blockade day 235 (Mon Oct 19, ~05:08 UTC overnight re-verify). Crude pulled BACK from Friday's five-month highs as oil futures reopened: Brent ~$107.8 (-~1.9%) and WTI ~$100.4 (-~1%) after President Trump signed an Oct 16 waiver of Graham Act sanctions/tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, which traders read as pointing to more Russian barrels reaching market. The Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut to most commercial traffic (Iran's IRGC still claims mine strikes; Iran's FM floats a 7-day reopening tied to US concessions), so crude remains ~50% above pre-crisis levels. AAA national gas ~$4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC after a hot Sept PPI revived rate-hike odds.CNBC / FXStreet / The Hill

11. 2026-10-19Partially blocked

    Blockade day 235 (Mon Oct 19, ~13:02 UTC midday re-verify). Crude held its early-week pullback from Friday's five-month-high settles: Brent ~$107.6 (-~2%) and WTI ~$99.5 (-~1.9%) as oil futures reopened lower after President Trump's Oct 16 executive order waived Graham Act sanctions and proposed secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil (Rubio: a review of up to 60 days), which traders read as pointing to more Russian barrels reaching market. Supply-risk counterweights persisted — the IRGC claimed a fresh mined-tanker fire on Hormuz's 'unauthorized' southern route Monday and Ukrainian drones struck a St. Petersburg oil terminal — while US equities rebounded from their worst week since June. AAA national gas ~$4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC after a hot Sept CPI (3.7%) and PPI revived rate-hike odds.Reuters / FXStreet / The Star / ADVFN

12. 2026-10-19Partially blocked

    Blockade day 235 (Mon Oct 19, ~21:06 UTC evening re-verify). Crude held its early-week pullback from Friday's five-month-high settles: Brent ~$107.8 (-~1.9%) and WTI ~$100.4 (-~1%) after President Trump's Oct 16 waiver of Graham Act sanctions on buyers of Russian oil led traders to price in more Russian supply (Rubio: review of up to 60 days). US equities rebounded from their worst week since June, with Nvidia and Intel leading a tech bounce. The Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut (IRGC claims fresh mined-tanker fires on the 'unauthorized' southern route; Iran's FM floats a conditional 7-day reopening). AAA national gas ~$4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC after a hot Sept CPI (3.7%) and PPI.Reuters / HDFC Sky / CNBC

13. 2026-10-20Effectively closed

    Blockade day 236 (Tue Oct 20, ~05:08 UTC overnight re-verify). Oil slid ~2% overnight into Tuesday — Brent near $108, WTI near $100 (dipping below $99 intraday) — after President Trump's Oct 16 waiver of new Russia sanctions signaled more Russian crude returning to market, pulling Brent back from Friday's ~$110 five-month high. A floor held under prices on reports of mines striking tankers near the still-effectively-shut Strait of Hormuz: the IRGC claimed a third tanker ablaze on the 'unauthorized' southern route while CENTCOM blamed an Iranian projectile for the sunken GFS Pride. AAA national gas ~$4.30/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC after a hot Sept CPI (3.7%) revived rate-hike odds.Reuters / HDFC Sky / Vantage / Mitrade

14. 2026-10-20Effectively closed

    Blockade day 236 (Tue Oct 20, ~13:02 UTC midday re-verify). Crude is near five-month highs: Brent touched about $110.70 on Mon Oct 19 — its highest since May — before easing to roughly $109 on Tuesday, with WTI near $101-103, as traders weighed President Trump's Oct 16 waiver of Graham Act sanctions on buyers of Russian oil (which could return more Russian barrels to market) against continued Iranian tanker strikes near the still-effectively-shut Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC Navy said Oct 20 its mines halted two more tankers on 'unauthorized' southern routes; CENTCOM disputes the mine narrative. AAA national gas ~$4.30/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.32. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC after a hot Sept CPI (3.7%).Reuters / CNBC / FXStreet

15. 2026-10-20Effectively closed

    Blockade day 236 (Tue Oct 20, ~21:06 UTC evening re-verify). Crude eased from Friday's five-month high: Brent ~$109 and WTI ~$101 after President Trump's Oct 16 Graham Act waiver on buyers of Russian oil led traders to price in more Russian supply, while a floor held under prices as the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively shut and the tanker war ground on — the IRGC Navy said Oct 20 its mines halted two more tankers on 'unauthorized' southern routes; CENTCOM disputes the mine narrative. Kpler put Persian Gulf outflow near ~8.5M bpd (from >20M two weeks earlier). AAA national gas ~$4.28/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.32. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC after a hot Sept CPI (3.7%).Reuters / CNBC / Kpler

16. 2026-10-21Effectively closed

    Blockade day 237 (Wed Oct 21, ~05:08 UTC overnight re-verify). Crude firmed again after easing earlier in the week: Brent near $109-110 (touched ~$110.70 Mon Oct 19, highest since May) and WTI near $98-99 after Iran's IRGC warned of a wider Strait of Hormuz blockade and claimed up to three more mined tankers, offsetting the supply signal from President Trump's Oct 16 Graham Act waiver on buyers of Russian oil. The strait stays effectively shut to routine traffic; Kpler put Gulf outflow near ~8.5M bpd. AAA national gas ~$4.28/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.32. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.FXStreet / Reuters / CNBC

17. 2026-10-21Effectively closed

    Blockade day 237 (Wed Oct 21, ~13:02 UTC midday re-verify). Crude held near five-month highs: Brent ~$110.2-110.5 after touching ~$111.99 intraday Tuesday Oct 20 (highest since May), WTI ~$99.3, as Iran's IRGC pressed its Strait of Hormuz tanker campaign — Iran's Navy said Oct 20 it found a burning tanker in a restricted eastern-strait zone, the third reported incident in a week, while CENTCOM's Gen. Brad Cooper said the waterway 'has been cleared of mines' and ~400 ships and ~100M barrels transited in the past week. The IEA's new monthly report called the Gulf recovery 'fragile.' AAA national gas ~$4.28/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.32. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.Kurdistan24 / Vantage / IEA

18. 2026-10-21Effectively closed

    Blockade day 237 (Wed Oct 21, ~21:06 UTC evening re-verify). Crude held near five-month highs: Brent around $110 (after touching ~$112 intraday Tuesday Oct 20, the highest since May) and WTI near $99, as Iran’s IRGC claimed mines set up to three tankers ablaze and declared the strait closed while UKMTO reported a separate projectile strike on a tanker off Bukha, Oman; CENTCOM again called the mine claims false and said lanes remain open. Kpler counts roughly 18 vessel attacks in two weeks. AAA national gas eased to ~$4.27/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.32. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.Oilprice / Al Arabiya / Kpler

19. 2026-10-22Effectively closed

    Blockade day 238 (Thu Oct 22, ~05:12 UTC overnight re-verify). Crude held near five-month highs — Brent ~$110/bbl, WTI ~$99 (the Nov contract expired ~$101.79) — as Iran's IRGC pressed its Strait of Hormuz tanker campaign, saying mines halted two-to-three more tankers and that its action would no longer be confined to the strait, while CENTCOM again said it cleared the main lanes and declared the waterway open to non-sanctioned vessels (~400 ships/~100M barrels in the past week). A ship was hit by an unknown projectile off Oman on Oct 21. Kpler counts ~18 vessel attacks in two weeks; IMF PortWatch shows daily transits collapsing toward ~4 from a normal ~85. AAA national gas ~$4.26/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.Al Arabiya / FXStreet / Kpler

20. 2026-10-22Effectively closed

    Blockade day 238 (Thu Oct 22, ~21:06 UTC evening re-verify). Crude hit a five-month high — Brent jumped ~3% toward ~$112 (intraday ~$112-113; WTI ~$99-100) — after Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi energy, airport and military targets (naming an Aramco facility at Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield) and Iran's IRGC claimed seven tankers were hit near the strait (four in ship-to-ship transfers, three by mines). Aramco told Dhahran HQ staff to work remotely; CENTCOM again called Iran's mine claims false. AAA national gas ~$4.26/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.Reuters / Oilprice / The Hill

21. 2026-10-23Effectively closed

    Blockade day 239 (Fri Oct 23, 2026, ~13:02 UTC midday re-verify). Crude holds a five-month high — Brent around $114 (up ~8% on the week; Oct 22 settle ~$113.17, the highest since May) and WTI near $100-101 — after Yemen’s Houthis struck Saudi energy and airport targets (an Aramco facility at Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield; a Dammam airport strike reportedly killed one) and Iran’s IRGC claimed seven tankers hit near the strait, with fresh at-sea incidents (the Kuwaiti-flagged Al Dasma off Oman on Oct 21). CENTCOM again called Iran’s mine claims false while the UKMTO confirmed two damaged vessels; Washington ordered non-emergency diplomats out of Saudi Arabia. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.28. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.inkl / The Hill / Seatrade Maritime

22. 2026-10-23Effectively closed

    Blockade day 239 (Fri Oct 23, 2026, ~21:07 UTC afternoon re-verify). Crude held a five-month high into the US close — Brent around $114-117 and WTI above $100 (Thursday Brent settle ~$113.17, the highest since May) — as Yemen's Houthis pressed their wave on Saudi energy and airport targets (an Aramco facility at Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, a Dammam airport) and Iran's IRGC maintained its Strait of Hormuz tanker campaign. Washington kept non-emergency diplomats out of Saudi Arabia; CENTCOM again called Iran's mine claims false while the UKMTO confirmed damaged vessels. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.32. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.inkl / OilPrice / The National

23. 2026-10-24Effectively closed

    Blockade day 240 (Sat Oct 24, 2026, ~13:02 UTC midday re-verify). The Friday Oct 23 US settle is now confirmed at a roughly six-month high: Brent $116.72 (+3.1%, highest close since late April) and WTI $103.27 (+3.8%), per CNBC; Brent gained ~6.2% on the week, a third straight weekly rise, with markets shut for the weekend. Levels reflect the risk of renewed US strikes on Iran, Yemen's Houthi wave on Saudi energy/airport targets (Aramco Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, a Dammam airport) and Iran's IRGC Strait of Hormuz tanker campaign; Washington kept non-emergency diplomats out of Saudi Arabia. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.32. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.CNBC

24. 2026-10-24Effectively closed

    Blockade day 240 (Sat Oct 24, 2026, ~21:05 UTC evening re-verify; US markets closed for the weekend, Fri Oct 23 the last session). Crude holds a roughly six-month high with no weekend trading — Friday's confirmed settles stand at Brent $116.72 (+3.1%, highest close since late April) and WTI $103.27 (+3.8%), per CNBC; Brent gained ~6.2% on the week, a third straight weekly rise. Levels reflect the risk of renewed US strikes on Iran, Yemen's Houthi wave on Saudi energy and airport targets (an Aramco facility at Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and a Dammam airport strike that reportedly killed one) and Iran's IRGC Strait of Hormuz tanker campaign — the IRGC claimed seven tankers hit near the strait, which CENTCOM disputed and the UKMTO only partly confirmed. The strait stays effectively shut to routine traffic (~14 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.32. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.CNBC / OilPrice / IDN Financials / AAA / EIA

25. 2026-10-25Effectively closed

    Blockade day 241 (Sun Oct 25, 2026, ~13:01 UTC midday re-verify; US markets closed for the weekend, Fri Oct 23 the last session). Crude holds a roughly six-month high with no weekend trading — Friday's confirmed settles stand at Brent $116.72 (+3.1%, highest close since late April) and WTI $103.27 (+3.8%); scattered pre-open feeds ran slightly higher (~Brent $117.4 / WTI $103.4). The driver is Yemen's Houthis widening their assault on Saudi energy and airports — spokesman Yahya Saree claimed Oct 24 strikes on an Aramco facility at Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and airports at Riyadh, Dammam and Najran (Saudi reported interceptions, damage unconfirmed) — layered on Iran's IRGC Strait of Hormuz tanker campaign and the standing Hormuz risk premium; Washington kept non-emergency diplomats out of Saudi Arabia. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.FinanceFeeds / CNBC / U.S. News / AAA / EIA

26. 2026-10-25Effectively closed

    Blockade day 241 (Sun Oct 25, 2026, ~21:05 UTC evening re-verify; US markets closed for the weekend, Fri Oct 23 the last session). Crude held a roughly six-month high over the closed weekend — Friday's settles stand at Brent $116.72 (+3.1%) and WTI $103.27 (+3.8%), per CNBC. Iran's IRGC claimed a seven-tanker strike near the strait (AP could not independently confirm; UKMTO verified fewer), with reports of Saudi Aramco evacuating its Dhahran headquarters, as a maritime monitor counted a record ~28 ship attacks in October. The strait stays effectively shut to routine traffic. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33.NBC News / FinanceFeeds / CNBC / AAA

27. 2026-10-26Effectively closed

    Blockade day 242 (Mon Oct 26, 2026, ~05:08 UTC overnight re-verify; US markets reopen today). Crude pulled back ~2% as futures reopened — Brent near $114.3 and WTI near $101 (HDFC Sky) — on Middle East de-escalation hopes after President Trump said there would be no US strike on Iran 'today' and that he was weighing a deal, trimming part of the war-risk premium off Friday's roughly six-month-high settles (Brent $116.72 / WTI $103.27). The Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut; a maritime monitor counted a record ~28 ship attacks in October, and the Saudi-led coalition said it struck Houthi missile launchers in Sanaa early Monday after a Riyadh attack. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC.HDFC Sky / NBC News / Anadolu Agency

28. 2026-10-26Effectively closed

    Blockade day 242 (Mon Oct 26, 2026, ~13:24 UTC — US cash equities reopen). Crude held a ~2% pullback as futures and stocks reopened: Brent ~$114.5 and WTI ~$101 (Grafa: Brent $114.51, WTI -2.16% to $101.04; 5paisa Brent $114.25 / WTI $100.74), down from Friday's roughly six-month-high settles (Brent $116.72 / WTI $103.27), as reported Qatari-led US-Iran mediation and President Trump's remark that there would be no strike on Iran 'today' (he was weighing a deal) trimmed the war premium. The Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut to routine traffic; CENTCOM said it has moved more than 1.5 billion barrels through the strait since summer and that primary routes are mine-free. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC and Big Tech earnings.Grafa / 5paisa / Trading Economics / Manila Times

29. 2026-10-26Effectively closed

    Blockade day 242 (Mon Oct 26, 2026, ~21:06 UTC US-close re-verify). Crude settled lower as US markets reopened: Brent $115.81 (-$0.91/-0.8%, after briefly topping $117 intraday) and WTI $101.76 (-$1.51/-1.5%), retreating from Friday's roughly six-month-high settles (Brent $116.72 / WTI $103.27) as Saudi Arabia's defense minister met Iran's president in Tehran and Qatari mediators pursued de-escalation after President Trump said there would be no US strike on Iran 'today'; crude still held ~12% above the month's start. The Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut (~14 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war); CENTCOM said it has moved more than 1.5 billion barrels through since summer and that primary routes are mine-free, while a maritime monitor counted a record ~28 ship attacks in October. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC and Big Tech earnings.CNBC / EnergyNow / Arbiterz / AAA / EIA

30. 2026-10-27Effectively closed

    Blockade day 243 (Tue Oct 27, 2026, ~05:08 UTC overnight re-verify). No fresh Oct 27 settle yet; crude holds Monday's lower close — Brent $115.81 (-0.8%), WTI $101.76 (-1.5%) — after retreating from Friday's near six-month-high settles (Brent $116.72 / WTI $103.27) as Saudi Arabia's defense minister met Iran's president in Tehran and Qatari mediators pressed de-escalation. The Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut to routine traffic even as crude flows reportedly recover toward pre-war levels on bypass routes; a maritime monitor counted a record ~28 ship attacks in October. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC decision and Big Tech earnings.CNBC / Reuters / AAA / EIA

31. 2026-10-27Effectively closed

    Blockade day 243 (Tue Oct 27, 2026, ~13:13 UTC FOMC-day midday re-verify). No fresh Oct 27 settle; crude held Monday's lower close — Brent $115.81 (-0.8%), WTI $101.76 (-1.5%), intraday ~$115.0-115.2 / ~$101.0-101.3 — off Friday's near six-month-high settles as the Saudi-led Makkah-Pact delegation's Oct 26 Tehran visit and Qatari mediation steadied de-escalation hopes and Houthi strikes on Saudi energy appeared to pause. Brent closed the week ending Oct 23 near $116.93, its highest since late April (+6.6% weekly). OPEC+ held November output flat (~31.01M bpd; next review Nov 1). AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33. Markets eye the Oct 27-28 FOMC decision and Big Tech earnings.CNBC / FX Empire / CrudeOilNow / AAA / EIA

32. 2026-10-27Effectively closed

    Blockade day 243 (Tue Oct 27, 2026, ~21:09 UTC FOMC-day-one close re-verify). No confirmed Oct 27 settle in wires yet; crude slipped modestly a second session — Brent ~$114.7-115.2 and WTI ~$100.8-101.3 intraday, off Monday's $115.81 / $101.76 settles — as Oman said talks with Iran produced an OUTLINE to restore free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz (Muscat: both Washington and Tehran must compromise) and the Makkah-pact Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani delegation's Oct 26 Tehran visit buoyed de-escalation hopes. Houthi claims of fresh strikes on Saudi pipeline pumping stations and Riyadh airport limited the drop. The strait stays effectively shut to routine traffic (~14 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). AAA national gas eased to ~$4.26/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33. Markets await the Oct 28 FOMC decision and Microsoft/Alphabet earnings.HDFC Sky / FinanceFeeds / CNBC / AAA / EIA

33. 2026-10-28Effectively closed

    Blockade day 244 (Wed Oct 28, 2026, ~05:08 UTC overnight re-verify). Crude ticked higher — Brent back around $115.3 and WTI near $101.1 — after Yemen’s Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery (~550k bpd), which Riyadh did not confirm; analysts said markets were pricing risk, not lost barrels. The bounce reversed part of Tuesday’s slide toward Brent $115 / WTI $100 that had followed Oman’s reported outline with Iran to restore Hormuz navigation. CENTCOM publicly rejected an IRGC claim that the US had left the strait, saying it has redirected 138 Iran-bound vessels. AAA national gas ~$4.26/gal; AAA/EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.35. Markets await the Oct 28 FOMC decision and Microsoft/Alphabet earnings.HDFC Sky / JNS / AAA / EIA

34. 2026-10-28Effectively closed

    Blockade day 244 (Wed Oct 28, 2026, ~13:02 UTC midday re-verify). Crude held above $115 — Brent ~$115.0-115.6, WTI ~$101 — on the risk premium after Yemen's Houthis claimed a ballistic-missile strike on Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery (~550k bpd), which Riyadh did not confirm and analysts said markets treated as risk, not lost barrels. CENTCOM rejected an IRGC claim that US forces had left the strait, saying it has redirected 138 Iran-bound vessels, while Iran said a tanker caught fire after hitting a naval mine east of Hormuz. Markets awaited the 18:00 UTC FOMC decision and Microsoft/Alphabet earnings. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.35.FinanceFeeds / JNS / Anadolu / AAA / EIA

35. 2026-10-28Effectively closed

    Blockade day 244 (Wed Oct 28, 2026, ~21:06 UTC US-close re-verify). Crude settled higher: Brent +1.3% to ~$115.32 and WTI +2.9% to ~$102.78, extending a Gulf risk premium after Yemen's Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery/export terminal (~550k bpd; Riyadh unconfirmed, fire reportedly contained) and amid reports Washington could renew strikes on Iran after the Nov 3 midterms. The Fed's 18:00 UTC decision to hold at 3.75-4% (10-2, two hawkish dissents for a hike) passed without moving oil much. CENTCOM rejected an IRGC claim that US forces had left the strait, saying it has redirected 138 Iran-bound vessels; the strait stays effectively shut to routine traffic (~14 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.35.CNBC / FXEmpire / Arbiterz / AAA / EIA

36. 2026-10-29Effectively closed

    Blockade day 245 (Thu Oct 29, 2026, ~05:08 UTC overnight re-verify). Crude eased after Wednesday's higher settle — Brent Dec futures near $114.5 (-~0.7%) and WTI near $101.7 (-~1%) — as reported US-Iran peace moves offset Gulf supply fears: the WSJ reported VP Vance wrote to Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei to restart talks (Trump denied ordering negotiations, calling the letter about medical supplies) and Reuters reported a Qatari-drafted proposal awaiting Tehran's reply, which Iran called unacceptable. Wednesday's gains (Brent $115.32 / WTI $102.78) had followed a Houthi-claimed strike on Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery (unconfirmed) and the Fed's hold. The strait stays effectively shut to routine traffic; OPEC+ reviews output Nov 1. AAA national gas ~$4.26/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.35.CNBC / InvestingLive / AAA / EIA

37. 2026-10-29Effectively closed

    Blockade day 245 (Thu Oct 29, 2026, ~13:19 UTC morning re-verify). Crude held lower — Brent ~$114-115, WTI ~$101-102 — after Wednesday’s higher settle (Brent $115.32 / WTI $102.78) as reported US-Iran peace moves offset Gulf supply fears: VP Vance’s reported outreach to Iran’s security chief (Trump played it down) and a Qatari-drafted proposal awaiting Tehran’s reply steadied de-escalation hopes, while the IRGC’s Oct 26 ‘closed’ declaration and a fresh claim of three mined tankers kept a floor under prices. CENTCOM says it has redirected 138 Iran-bound vessels. US Q3 GDP printed 3.4% and Sept core PCE 3.1%. AAA national gas ~$4.25/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.35. OPEC+ reviews output Nov 1.FinanceFeeds / Vantage / CNBC / AAA / EIA

38. 2026-10-29Effectively closed

    Blockade day 245 (Thu Oct 29, 2026, ~21:07 UTC afternoon re-verify). Crude held a second-day decline — Brent near $114.2 and WTI near $101.4, down about 1% from Wednesday's settles (Brent $115.32 / WTI $102.78) — as reported US-Iran diplomacy cooled the war premium: WSJ reporting detailed VP Vance's Trump-approved, Qatar-relayed letter to Iran's Mohsen Rezaei proposing talks as soon as the week of Nov 3, with Tehran expected to reply after rejecting a separate Qatari 7-day draft. Iran's IRGC claimed three tankers struck mines overnight on an 'unauthorized' southern route (a fourth later reported afire east of the strait); UKMTO verified one ship on fire near Khasab while CENTCOM called the mine claim 'a lie.' Defense Secretary Hegseth fired the Joint Staff's top planner over alleged Iran/Ukraine leaks. AAA national gas ~$4.25/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.35. OPEC+ reviews output Nov 1.CNBC / WSJ / FXStreet / AAA / EIA

39. 2026-10-30Effectively closed

    Blockade day 246 (Fri Oct 30, 2026, ~05:07 UTC overnight re-verify). Crude steadied overnight after easing a second day Thursday — Brent ~$114 / WTI ~$101 (Wed Oct 28 settle Brent $115.32 / WTI $102.78) — as reported US-Iran de-escalation (VP Vance's Qatar-relayed letter; a Qatari-drafted proposal awaiting Tehran's reply, expected ~Oct 30) offset Gulf supply fears, while dueling Strait of Hormuz tanker-strike claims kept a floor under prices. Trump warned Gulf states to 'prepare' and said post-midterm Iran strikes are possible. Asian markets digested Thursday's split Big Tech earnings tape. The strait stays effectively shut to routine traffic (~14 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war); CENTCOM says it has redirected 138 Iran-bound vessels. AAA national gas ~$4.25/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.35. OPEC+ reviews output Sunday Nov 1.CNBC / FXStreet / AAA / EIA

40. 2026-10-30Effectively closed

    Blockade day 246 (Fri Oct 30, 2026, ~13:02 UTC morning re-verify). Crude firmed back toward five-month highs after easing two days — WTI holding above $103 and Brent near $115.7 (Wed Oct 28 settle Brent $115.32 / WTI $102.78) — as fresh Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks and Houthi strikes on Saudi energy offset reported US-Iran de-escalation (VP Vance's Qatar-relayed letter; a Qatari draft Tehran disputes, reply expected by week's end). Iran's IRGC claimed three-to-four mined tankers overnight on an 'unauthorized' southern route; UKMTO confirmed one ship afire near Khasab while CENTCOM called the mine claim 'a lie' and says it has redirected 138 Iran-bound vessels. Brent is on track for ~+14% in October. AAA national gas ~$4.25/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.35. OPEC+ reviews output Sunday Nov 1.FXStreet / CNBC / AAA / EIA

• Brent crude is on track for roughly a 14% rise in October 2026 — its biggest monthly gain of the year — as Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries and Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks sustain a supply-risk premium; WTI held above $103 near five-month highs on Oct. 30.

  FXStreet2026-10-30

• The OPEC+ group of eight meets Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026 and is widely expected to keep output steady near 31.01M bpd, with Reuters sources saying no production change is likely before 2027 pending a capacity review.

  News on AIR (Reuters)2026-10-30

• Oil ticked higher in Oct. 28 overnight trade — Brent back around $115.3/bbl and WTI near $101.1 — after Yemen’s Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery (~550,000 bpd), a claim Riyadh did not confirm and that analysts said priced risk rather than lost barrels; the move reversed part of a diplomacy-driven Oct. 27 dip.

  HDFC Sky / InvestingLive2026-10-28

• Brent crude traded near $110-111/bbl on Oct 22 — around a five-month high — after reports of planned US/Israeli strikes on Iran following the November midterms and fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure added risk premium; WTI held near $99 and a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile off Oman on Oct 21.

  Vantage Markets / Straits.live2026-10-22

• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic even as Middle East crude outflows hold near pre-war levels; Bank of America estimated roughly ten times more ships would be needed to fully stabilize flows, keeping a durable war premium in the oil complex.

  OilPrice.com / Bank of America2026-10-22

• Crude held near five-month highs into midday Wed Oct 21 — Brent ~$110.2-110.5 after touching ~$111.99 intraday Tuesday (highest since May) and WTI ~$99.3 — as Iran's IRGC pressed its Strait of Hormuz tanker campaign (a third reported tanker incident in a week) while CENTCOM said the strait 'has been cleared of mines'; the IEA called the Gulf supply recovery 'fragile.'

  Vantage Markets / Kurdistan24 / IEA2026-10-21

• Over the Oct 18 weekend the Strait of Hormuz tanker war held at a record pitch: Iran's IRGC claimed fresh tanker blasts and the Singapore-flagged GFS Pride sank under tow, while Iran's foreign minister said the strait was 'reopening' and seven-day ceasefire terms remained open; CENTCOM rejected the mine claims as disinformation. With US markets closed, crude held Brent $109.86 / WTI $101.41.

  CBS News / BOE Report / The Hill2026-10-18

• Oct 18, 2026 (~13:01 UTC midday re-verify, US markets closed): crude held Friday's five-month-high settle — Brent $109.86 (briefly >$110, first since May) and WTI $101.41 — as Iran's IRGC claimed two supertankers struck mines Oct 16-17 while CENTCOM called the account 'disinformation,' said ~97% of ships transit safely and that it has now redirected 138 commercial vessels. UKMTO logged 10+ vessels attacked near Hormuz in a week, a war record. AAA national gas ~$4.30/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33.

  The Hill / Al Jazeera / ANI / EIA / AAA2026-10-18

• Oct 18, 2026 (weekend, US markets closed): crude held Friday's five-month-high settle — Brent $109.86 (briefly >$110, first since May) and WTI $101.41 — after a fresh Hormuz tanker strike, the GFS Pride sinking, Russian refinery disruptions and a large US crude draw. The IRGC reported a second supertanker hit a mine Oct 17; the UKMTO logged 10+ vessels attacked in a week, a war record. AAA national gas ~$4.31/gal; EIA on-highway diesel near a record ~$6.33.

  The Hill / BOE Report / EIA / AAA2026-10-18

• Oct 17, 2026 (~13:13 UTC, Saturday midday re-verify): with US markets closed for the weekend, crude held Friday's five-month-high settle — Brent $109.86 (briefly above $110, the first since May) and WTI $101.41 — after a fresh Strait of Hormuz tanker strike, the earlier GFS Pride sinking, Russian refinery disruptions and an ~8.6M-barrel US crude draw; the IEA is fast-tracking ~100M barrels of reserves including >20M barrels of diesel. AAA national gas held near $4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33.

  The Hill / FinanceFeeds / EIA / AAA2026-10-17

• Oct 15, 2026 (US close): crude extended its weekly retreat to ~Brent $104 / WTI $94-95 after Wed's $106.06 / $95.09 settle, as reports that Washington may relax 'shadow-fleet' sanctions eased supply fears and a large US crude inventory draw lifted WTI. AAA national gas held near $4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.18.

  Yahoo Finance / Grafa / EIA / AAA2026-10-15

• Oct 15, 2026 (midday): crude held lower at ~Brent $104 / WTI $94-95 after easing overnight on signals Washington may relax ‘shadow-fleet’ shipping sanctions, down from Wed’s Brent $106.06 / WTI $95.09 settle. The IEA trimmed its 2026 demand outlook and warned diesel constraints could persist into 2027; a record week of Iranian Hormuz tanker attacks and the Oct 13 strike on Aramco’s Dhahran HQ keep supply at risk.

  FXEmpire / CNBC / IEA2026-10-15

• Oct 14, 2026 (US close): crude firmed on Gulf supply risk — Brent ~$106 and WTI ~$95 — after a Houthi missile hit an administrative building at Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters (four wounded) and Iran announced new units to expand Hormuz shipping surveillance amid a record week of tanker attacks. US equities fell on a hot September CPI (3.7%) and an AI-chip rout. AAA national gas ~$4.33/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.18 (week of Oct 12).

  France 24 / Al Jazeera / Trading Economics / EIA / AAA2026-10-14

• US on-highway diesel averaged about $6.179/gal for the week of Oct 12, down ~2 cents week over week but roughly $2.51 above a year earlier; the 2026 high was ~$6.53 in late September. Diesel costs feed directly into trucking and food-logistics inflation.

  U.S. Energy Information Administration (weekly)2026-10-14

• Oct 13-14, 2026: crude firmed to a Brent settle ~$105.6 (Reuters ~$105.69, -0.9%) and WTI ~$92.8 as a fresh wave of Iranian attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz - the highest weekly attack count since the war began, per Reuters/IMO - and the IRGC's threat to widen strikes beyond the strait offset prospective Russian diesel supply and the G7/IEA plan to release up to 100M barrels of crude and diesel.

  Reuters / Al-Monitor / HDFC Sky2026-10-13

• The G7 agreed Oct 2 to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves over four months via the IEA, with diesel front-loaded; the IEA board was due to set the crude/diesel split and country allocations around Oct 14-15.

  Wealth Professional (AFP)2026-10-02

• Oct 13, 2026 (US close): crude eased a second/third day. Brent settled ~$104.67 (-~1.5%) and WTI ~$92.3, off Monday Oct 12's mid-September-high settles (~$106.65 Brent / ~$93.74 WTI), as prospective Russian diesel supply under a temporary US sanctions waiver offset renewed Iranian tanker strikes near Hormuz and a third day of Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. Goldman Sachs said added Russian diesel is unlikely to ease a strained global diesel market. AAA national gas ~$4.31/gal; on-highway diesel ~$6.26/gal.

  CNBC / HDFC Sky / Fortune / AAA2026-10-13

• Oct 9, 2026: Trump announced Russia will supply diesel to US and global markets under a temporary Treasury sanctions waiver (to April 7, 2027), sending ULSD futures ~4.6% lower; Brent eased to ~$103 and WTI ~$90.3 by Monday Oct 12.

  CNBC / KRMG (AP) / DTN2026-10-12

• CENTCOM said a US fighter jet disabled the Panama-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molika on Oct 10-11 for running the Hormuz blockade; since resuming the blockade on July 14 it has disabled four commercial vessels and turned back about 135.

  The Hill / The National2026-10-11

• Oct 11, 2026 (~21:13 UTC evening re-verify): crude held Friday Oct 9's close over the Columbus Day weekend (Brent ~$104.5 / WTI ~$91.8) with markets shut, as Hormuz tanker attacks intensified - the IRGC said a supertanker struck a mine Oct 11 and a second tanker was hit, and efforts to end the war on Iran stalled. The EIA's October STEO forecast Q4 Brent ~$105. AAA national gas ~$4.37/gal; on-highway diesel ~$6.28-6.30.

  Al Jazeera / CNN / EIA STEO / AAA2026-10-11

• 11 tankers were attacked transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the week ending Oct 4 - the most since the war began, per IMO data - while crude flows through the strait recovered toward ~8.5M bbl/d, about 40% below pre-war levels, via a US-escorted southern corridor off Oman.

  CNBC / Bloomberg2026-10-09

• The EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to about $105 a barrel, citing attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure, as Brent held near $104.5 and WTI near $91.8 into the weekend of Oct 11.

  U.S. Energy Information Administration (STEO)2026-10-11

• Crude surged then cooled on Oct 8, 2026 — Brent settled near $104.3 (+~4%) and WTI near $91.5 (+~3.6%) after an intraday spike toward $105-108 — as intensified Iranian attacks on Hormuz tankers and an approaching US Gulf Coast storm met a late pullback after Trump signaled no US strike on Iran before the November midterms.

  CNBC / OilPrice.com2026-10-08

• Crude surged about 5% on Oct 8, 2026 — Brent back near $105 and WTI around $92.7 — after intensified Iranian tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and an approaching US Gulf Coast storm threatened output, reversing the week’s IEA/OPEC+-driven easing.

  Yahoo Finance / OilPrice.com2026-10-08

• On Oct 7, 2026 the IEA's governing board agreed to prioritize releasing diesel stocks amid acute tightness, part of a G7 plan to make up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude available over four months to curb Iran-war-driven fuel prices.

  CNBC2026-10-07

• Day 218 (Oct 4, 2026): the eight-member OPEC+ core met online to set November output, with the decision pending at publication and pre-meeting reporting leaning toward restraint (a hold or modest increment) to balance a looming 2027 glut against the Hormuz supply shock. Brent held above $100 (~$100-102) and WTI near $91-93; the strait stayed effectively shut to routine traffic. AAA national gas ~$4.41/gal; on-highway diesel above $6.

  Argus Media / Trading Economics / AAA2026-10-04

• Day 216 (Oct 2, 2026): crude held near multi-month highs — Brent about $102 and WTI about $93 — as the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz standoff stayed unresolved; Washington ruled out easing sanctions and Tehran signaled 'no change' after receiving Washington's reply via Qatar. Reported US naval reinforcements and fresh tanker incidents near Hormuz kept a war-risk premium ahead of the Oct. 4 OPEC+ meeting, expected to hold output steady. AAA national gas eased to ~$4.41/gal after a record September; on-highway diesel stayed above $6.

  CNBC / Trading Economics / AAA2026-10-02

• Day 215 (Oct 1, 2026 evening): crude held firm after Trump ruled out easing Iran sanctions and told TIME he doubts peace with Iran is possible, with strikes possible after the November midterms. Brent's expiring Nov contract settled ~$103.5 and WTI ~$90.4 (Dec Brent nearer $97) while ~13.5M bpd of crude transited Hormuz under US Navy escort but refined-product flows stayed choked (~677k bpd vs ~3.6M pre-war). FM Araghchi said there is 'no change' in Iran's position after Washington's reply via Qatar; OPEC+ meets Oct 4, expected to hold output steady. AAA gas ~$4.46/gal; on-highway diesel ~$6.45-6.53.

  CNBC / CNN / The Hill2026-10-01

• Day 214 (Sept 30, 2026, close): crude eased with Brent near $97/bbl and WTI near $90 as Gulf producers - backed by the US Navy - kept pushing crude through the Strait of Hormuz (~13.1M bpd seven-day average) and analysts said Iran had 'lost considerable leverage.' Brent still finished September up about 7%; OPEC+ meets Oct 4 and is expected to hold output steady.

  CNN / CNBC2026-09-30

• Day 213 (Sep 29, 2026, Tue evening): the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively shut and crude held near multi-year highs — Brent ~$105–106 / WTI ~$92–94 — as FM Araghchi met Qatari mediators and said he expected a US ‘definitive’ response Tuesday to Iran’s 7-day reopening roadmap; none had publicly landed by evening and envoy Waltz called the offer ‘a pretty cynical attempt.’ Saudi Arabia exported ~6M bpd (a war-era high) via a US-secured lane off Oman. AAA national gas ~$4.48/gal; on-highway diesel ~$6.45–6.53/gal.

  CNBC / France 24 / AAA2026-09-29

• Day 211 (Sept 27, 2026, Sun evening): the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively shut over the weekend. Iran's FM Araghchi said Tehran will not soften its demands and still awaits a definitive US answer via mediators after Trump's on-camera rejection of the 7-day reopening roadmap; CENTCOM's Adm. Brad Cooper said Hormuz oil and LNG flows nonetheless hit a six-month high over the past two weeks. Crude held Friday's ~$104.32 Brent / ~$92.41 WTI settles; AAA national gas ~$4.49/gal (a late-September record) and on-highway diesel ~$6.50/gal.

  CNBC / CNN / AAA2026-09-27

• Day 210 (Sept 26, 2026, Sat evening): the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut. Iran’s 7-day reopening roadmap (via Qatar) was rejected on camera by President Trump as “not acceptable”; the WSJ reported he expects strikes to resume after the November midterms. AAA national gas held ~$4.49/gal - a seasonal record and >$1 above a year ago.

  CNBC / AAA2026-09-26

• Day 208 (Sept 24, 2026): the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed - single-digit daily transits vs an ~85-140/day pre-crisis baseline - but crude firmed (Brent ~$102-106, WTI ~$92-94) after Wednesday snapped a five-session slide, as Iranian President Pezeshkian vowed at the UN that Iran 'will not surrender' and would restrict Hormuz navigation while the US blockade persists. Saudi Arabia's ~4M bpd Petroline pipeline stayed back online, routing crude around the chokepoint via the Red Sea, capping the war premium.

  CNBC / Reuters / TradingEconomics2026-09-24

• Sept 23, 2026: Saudi Arabia restarted its drone-damaged East-West (Petroline) crude pipeline - shut since Sept 13 - which can reroute ~4M bpd (~4% of global supply) around the Strait of Hormuz, and moved to resume Yanbu Red Sea exports; the bearish supply news drove Brent to a two-week low before an Iran-driven rebound to ~$103 on Sept 23.

  US News / Reuters2026-09-23

• Iran formally submitted conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days - lifting the US naval blockade, releasing frozen assets and ending hostilities - conveyed to US envoy Steve Witkoff at the UN General Assembly on Sept 22.

  U.S. News / Reuters2026-09-22

• US on-highway diesel hit a record ~$6.528/gal and the AAA national gas average held ~$4.475/gal as the Iran-war oil premium kept fuel costs elevated even amid a five-session Brent slide toward $98.

  Rigzone / AAA2026-09-22

• Crude fell for a fifth straight session into Sept 22, with Brent near $100 and WTI in the low-to-mid $90s, as US-Iran de-escalation signals and resilient Strait of Hormuz shipments eased the war premium despite the ongoing blockade.

  Vantage Markets / Bloomberg2026-09-22

• Strait of Hormuz throughput remained near record lows even as markets cited an improvement: IMF PortWatch logged single-digit daily transits versus an ~85/day pre-crisis baseline, and the rebound driving Monday’s oil selloff is off an extremely depressed base.

  The National2026-09-21

• AAA's national gasoline average rose to ~$4.476/gal (up ~13 cents in one week) and on-highway diesel set fresh records (~$6.45 national; ~$6.50 in Illinois) as the Gulf war premium persisted into the weekend of Sept 19-20.

  AAA Newsroom / Shaw Local2026-09-20

• Sept 19, 2026: the Saudi-Houthi front reached the capital for the first time — a Houthi missile struck a fuel-storage depot at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, igniting an Aramco-branded tank and disrupting flights (Saudi air defense says it intercepted a ballistic missile; Houthis claim a direct hit plus a second strike on Aramco at Yanbu), underscoring the risk premium on Saudi energy infrastructure even as crude eased.

  France 24 / The Washington Post2026-09-19

• Sept 18-19, 2026: satellite tracking showed Saudi Arabia moved about 2.8 million bpd through the Strait of Hormuz over six days — up from ~700,000 bpd in August — using ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar to bypass Iranian attack risk, helping push crude to a third straight session of losses (Brent ~$103.87, WTI ~$100.30) even as Saudi-Houthi strikes reached Riyadh with air-raid alerts.

  CNBC2026-09-19

• Sept 19, 2026 (blockade day 203): crude held a third straight session of losses — Brent ~$103.9 and WTI ~$100.3 at Friday's close — as Saudi ship-to-ship transfers near Oman and a pending partial Petroline restart eased supply fears even with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut; on-highway diesel set a fresh national record ~$6.45/gal.

  CNBC / AAA2026-09-19

• Sept 18, 2026 (blockade day 202, evening): crude fell a third straight session — Brent near $102-104 and WTI near $100, dipping intraday toward $100 — after Saudi Arabia signaled it will restore ~half of its drone-damaged East-West (Petroline) pipeline within days and the full line within ~6 weeks, easing supply fears; AAA national gas edged up to ~$4.47/gal and on-highway diesel held near a record ~$6.39/gal.

  CNBC / UPI / Reuters2026-09-18

• Sept 17, 2026 (evening): crude extended its pullback from four-month highs — Brent settled ~$104.8 and WTI ~$101.9, holding above $100 — as Saudi Arabia fast-tracked repair of its drone-damaged East-West (Petroline) pipeline (about half within days, full in ~6 weeks) and offered ship-to-ship crude transfers near Oman to bypass the Hormuz closure. AAA's national gasoline average rose to ~$4.44/gal and on-highway diesel set a fresh record near $6.39/gal.

  CNBC / Fortune / AAA2026-09-17

• Sept 17, 2026 (blockade day 201): crude extended its pullback from four-month highs — Brent ~$105.8, WTI ~$102 — as Saudi Arabia moved to restore about half of the drone-damaged East-West (Petroline) pipeline within days and offered ship-to-ship crude transfers, trimming the war-risk premium even with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut.

  Bloomberg / CNBC2026-09-17

• Sept 16, 2026 (blockade day 200, FOMC decision day evening): crude held four-month highs (Brent ~$108, WTI ~$104) as the Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, citing the oil-driven inflation shock. With the Strait effectively shut and ~7M bpd of Saudi Red Sea routing offline, Saudi crude output was reported at its lowest since 1990, forcing OPEC members to cut.

  Fortune2026-09-16

• The AAA national on-highway diesel average crossed $6/gal for the first time ever on Sept 11, 2026, and held near a record ~$6.29/gal (EIA on-highway ~$6.285, West Coast ~$7.25, California ~$7.98) — feeding supply-chain and food-logistics inflation up and down the economy.

  Fox Business / EIA2026-09-16

• Crude held four-month highs into the Sept 16 FOMC (Brent ~$107, WTI ~$103-105) as Saudi Arabia moved to restore its shut East-West (Petroline) pipeline within days; on-highway diesel held near a record ~$6.27/gal.

  CNBC / AAA2026-09-16

• On Sept 15, 2026, US on-highway diesel set a fresh record ~$6.27/gal and the IEA deepened its 2026 oil-demand-decline forecast to 2.5M bpd (940k bpd more than August), even as Brent held ~$107.5 and WTI ~$103.5 on the Hormuz closure.

  Fox Business / IEA2026-09-15

• Sept 14, 2026 midday (blockade day ~196): with US cash markets open, crude held its gap-up — Brent ~$108.15 / WTI ~$102.64 intraday (Trading Economics: Brent +3.6%, WTI +2.5% d/d) — as the postponed Iran-GCC Hormuz talks and the shut Saudi Petroline pipeline kept the war-risk premium bid. AAA regular gas ~$4.28/gal; on-highway diesel a record ~$6.06/gal.

  Trading Economics / Vantage Markets / AAA2026-09-14

• Sept 25, 2026 midday (blockade day 209): crude pared gains from an intraday Brent high near $108 to ~$105-107 (WTI ~$92-95) as US and Iranian negotiators explored a phased Strait of Hormuz reopening tied to a written 60-day ceasefire roadmap; Iran reportedly floated a 7-day proposal and signaled flexibility on a transit-fee demand. AAA national gas held a seasonal-record ~$4.48/gal; on-highway diesel a record ~$6.53/gal.

  CNBC / The National / AAA2026-09-25

• Sept 26, 2026 (blockade day 210): the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively shut to routine traffic as Iran's 7-day reopening roadmap awaited a US reply; the WSJ reported Trump privately rejected the offer. Crude held near Friday's settles (Brent ~$105.26 / WTI ~$92.78) after a Houthi missile barrage on Saudi cities; AAA gas ~$4.49/gal, on-highway diesel ~$6.50.

  Bloomberg / CNBC2026-09-26

• Sept 28, 2026 (blockade day 212): the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively shut to routine traffic as Iran awaited a 'definitive' US reply to its rejected 7-day reopening roadmap; FM Araghchi said Iran is 'fully prepared' for war but open to diplomacy. Markets were closed over the weekend, so crude held near Friday's settles (Brent ~$104.32 / WTI ~$92.41); AAA gas ~$4.49/gal, on-highway diesel ~$6.53. CENTCOM said Hormuz throughput hit a six-month high.

  NBC News / CNBC2026-09-28

• OPEC+ meets Oct. 4, 2026: the eight core producers are expected to hold near-term output steady and shift focus to reviewing members' sustainable production capacity to set 2027 quota baselines, implying a fourth-quarter pause in the group's supply increases.

  AOL / AFP2026-10-03

• At its early-October online meeting the eight-member OPEC+ core kept November output targets steady, deferring any policy change to a review of 2027 quota baselines; Gulf members are already pumping below quota because of the war, making a near-term hike moot.

  CNBC / Argus Media2026-10-04

• Yemen’s Houthis claimed a missile-and-drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery on Oct 4, raising fears of Saudi supply disruption and helping keep Brent above $100.

  Business Standard2026-10-05

• As of Oct 10, 2026 the US naval blockade of Iran was in its 224th day, with Strait of Hormuz transits near a two-month low (~14/day vs ~140 pre-war) amid record Iranian tanker attacks (IMO: 11 tankers struck in the week ending Oct 4). Oil ended the week mixed — Brent held above $102 while a G7/IEA emergency reserve release knocked WTI to ~$91 — and AAA national gas held ~$4.36/gal, on-highway diesel ~$6.28.

  CNBC / Reuters / IMO / AAA2026-10-10

• The September CPI released Oct 14 ran hot at 3.7% year-on-year (up from 3.4% in August), with gasoline up 9.1% on the month and 34.2% year-on-year — accounting for roughly half the headline gain — underscoring how the war's energy shock is feeding consumer inflation.

  CNBC / BLS2026-10-14

• On Oct 15 the September producer price index came in far hotter than expected (reported ~+1.3% m/m, ~+6.3% y/y), with energy the biggest driver — a day after September CPI ran 3.7%. Oil settled firmer (Brent ~$105.9, WTI ~$98.0, +~3%) as Hormuz ship attacks and a third sunken vessel kept a war-risk premium, partly offset by an IEA pledge to complete a 100-million-barrel emergency release.

  InvestmentNews / CNBC / BLS2026-10-16

• Brent crude briefly topped $110/bbl on Oct 16, 2026 — its first time since May — settling at $109.86 (+3.72%) while WTI settled $101.41 (+3.51%), after another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and the IEA fast-tracked ~100M barrels of emergency reserves, including over 20M barrels of diesel.

  The Hill / gCaptain2026-10-16

• The Strait of Hormuz tanker war escalated over Oct 16-17, with the IRGC reporting two more tankers struck mines and the UKMTO logging at least 10 vessels attacked near the strait in a week — a record for the conflict. With US markets closed, crude held Friday's settles, Brent $109.86 and WTI $101.41.

  BOE Report / Iran News Wire / The Hill2026-10-17

• Oil pulled back from Friday Oct 16's five-month highs (Brent $109.86 / WTI $101.41) as futures reopened Monday Oct 19, trading ~Brent $107.6 / WTI $99.5 (-~2%) after President Trump's Oct 16 executive order waived Graham Act sanctions and proposed secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil; Secretary of State Rubio framed it as a review of up to 60 days. Traders read the waiver as pointing to more Russian supply, partly offsetting the still-shut Strait of Hormuz.

  Reuters / The Star / ADVFN2026-10-19

• Oil held its early-week pullback into Monday Oct 19 evening — Brent ~$107.8 (-~1.9%) and WTI ~$100.4 (-~1%) vs Friday's five-month-high settles (Brent $109.86 / WTI $101.41) — after Trump's Oct 16 waiver of Graham Act sanctions on buyers of Russian oil signaled more Russian supply, while a still-shut Strait of Hormuz kept crude ~50% above pre-crisis levels.

  Reuters / HDFC Sky2026-10-19

• Oil pulled back ~2% from Friday's five-month high (Brent ~$108, WTI ~$100) on Oct 19-20 after President Trump's Oct 16 executive order waived new Graham Act sanctions/tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, signaling more Russian barrels returning to market; the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, keeping a war-risk premium under prices.

  HDFC Sky / Vantage / Mitrade2026-10-20

• Crude held near five-month highs into Tuesday Oct 20 — Brent about $109 after touching ~$110.70 Monday (highest since May), WTI near $101-103 — as traders balanced the prospect of more Russian supply from Trump's Oct 16 sanctions waiver against continued Iranian tanker strikes near the still-shut Strait of Hormuz.

  Reuters / CNBC2026-10-20

• Crude firmed again into Wed Oct 21 — Brent near $109-110 (after touching ~$110.70 Monday, a five-month high) and WTI near $98-99 — as Iran's IRGC warned of a wider Strait of Hormuz blockade and claimed up to three more mined tankers, offsetting the supply signal from Trump's Oct 16 Graham Act sanctions waiver on buyers of Russian oil.

  FXStreet / Reuters2026-10-21

• Brent topped $110 and WTI neared $99 on Oct 21 (Brent touched ~$112 intraday Tuesday, a five-month high) as a surge of Iranian tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz — roughly 18 vessels struck in two weeks per Kpler — throttled Gulf exports; CENTCOM says the strait’s lanes remain open and called Iran’s mine claims false.

  Oilprice / FXStreet2026-10-21

• Brent held near $110 and WTI near $99 on Oct 21-22 as Iran's IRGC pressed its Strait of Hormuz tanker campaign — Kpler counts roughly 18 vessels struck in two weeks, with the threat spreading into the Gulf of Oman — while CENTCOM says it cleared the main lanes and called Iran's mine claims false.

  Oilprice / FXStreet2026-10-22

• Oil hit a five-month high on Oct 22 — Brent jumped ~3% toward ~$112 and WTI toward ~$100 — after Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi energy sites (an Aramco facility at Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield) and Iran's IRGC claimed seven tankers damaged near the Strait of Hormuz; Aramco told Dhahran HQ staff to work remotely and CENTCOM called Iran's mine claims false.

  Reuters / Oilprice2026-10-22

• Oil held a five-month high at the Oct 23 midday re-verify — Brent around $114 (up ~8% on the week) and WTI near $100-101 — after Yemen’s Houthis struck Saudi energy and airport targets and Iran’s IRGC claimed seven tankers hit near the Strait of Hormuz, with a fresh at-sea strike on the Kuwaiti-flagged Al Dasma off Oman on Oct 21; AAA national gasoline sat near a seasonal October record ~$4.29/gal.

  inkl / The Hill / AAA2026-10-23

• Brent crude settled $116.72/bbl (+3.1%) on Fri Oct 23 — its highest close since late April — on fears of renewed US strikes on Iran, Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites and the Hormuz tanker campaign; WTI settled $103.27 (+3.8%), and Brent gained about 6.2% for the week, a third straight weekly rise.

  CNBC2026-10-23

• Crude closed Fri Oct 23 at a roughly six-month high — Brent settled $116.72 (+3.1%), its highest close since late April, and WTI $103.27 (+3.8%) — with Brent up ~6.2% on the week for a third straight weekly gain, driven by Yemen's Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites and Iran's Strait of Hormuz tanker campaign; the levels held over the closed-market weekend.

  CNBC / IDN Financials2026-10-24

• Yemen's Houthis widened the energy war beyond Hormuz, claiming strikes on an Aramco facility at Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield plus a Dammam (King Fahd) airport strike that reportedly killed one — threatening Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export workaround and prompting Washington to order non-emergency diplomats out of Saudi Arabia.

  OilPrice.com / The National (UAE)2026-10-23

• Yemen's Houthis claimed a broad Oct 24 missile-and-drone assault on Saudi oil and aviation targets — an Aramco facility at Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and airports at Riyadh, Dammam and Najran; Saudi authorities reported interceptions and shelter warnings, with no independent confirmation of damage, keeping Brent near a six-month high.

  U.S. News (Reuters)2026-10-24

• Oil retreated about 2% as US markets reopened Monday Oct 26 — Brent near $114 and WTI near $101 — after President Trump said there would be no US strike on Iran that day and that he was weighing a deal, trimming the war-risk premium off Friday's roughly six-month-high settles (Brent $116.72 / WTI $103.27).

  HDFC Sky2026-10-26

• Oil pulled back ~2% from a roughly six-month high as US markets reopened Mon Oct 26 — Brent ~$114.5, WTI ~$101 — after President Trump said there would be no US strike on Iran 'today' and that he was weighing a deal, amid reports of Qatari-led mediation; Houthi strikes on Saudi energy and the still-shut Strait of Hormuz kept a durable risk premium (Friday settles: Brent $116.72 / WTI $103.27).

  Grafa / 5paisa / Trading Economics2026-10-26

• Oil settled lower on Monday Oct 26 as US markets reopened — Brent $115.81 (-0.8%) and WTI $101.76 (-1.5%), off Friday's roughly six-month-high settles (Brent $116.72 / WTI $103.27) — after Saudi Arabia's defense minister met Iran's president in Tehran and Qatari mediators pressed de-escalation; crude still held about 12% above the month's start with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut.

  CNBC / EnergyNow2026-10-26

• As of Oct 27, 2026 (blockade day 243), no fresh daily oil settle had posted; crude held Monday’s lower close of Brent $115.81 / WTI $101.76 — off Friday’s near six-month highs — as Saudi-Iran diplomacy offset ongoing Houthi attacks on Gulf energy sites and the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively shut to routine traffic. AAA national gas ~$4.29/gal; EIA on-highway diesel ~$6.33.

  CNBC / AAA / EIA2026-10-27

• Brent crude closed the week ending Oct 23, 2026 near $116.93/bbl, its highest since late April and a third straight weekly gain (+6.6%), driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and renewed US-Iran tensions before easing on de-escalation hopes.

  CrudeOilNow2026-10-24

• OPEC+ core members held November 2026 output flat at a combined required ~31.01 million bpd, with the next review set for Nov 1, 2026, as Hormuz disruption keeps actual output below target.

  Nairametrics2026-10-05

• Oil eased early Oct 29 on reported US-Iran peace moves (a WSJ-reported Vance letter to Iran's security chief and a Qatari-drafted proposal awaiting Tehran's reply), with Brent Dec futures near $114.5 and WTI near $101.7 after Wednesday's $115.32/$102.78 settles.

  CNBC2026-10-29

• US Q3 2026 GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, beating the 3.2% forecast, while September core PCE inflation held at 3.1% year-on-year and initial jobless claims fell to about 194,000 — firm growth and sticky inflation a day after the Fed’s 10-2 hold.

  Benzinga2026-10-29

• EIA on-highway diesel averaged about $6.35/gal in the week of Oct 26, roughly $2.63 above a year earlier, as the Strait of Hormuz blockade keeps distillate markets tight.

  FleetOwner / EIA2026-10-29