Situation report
Iran–Israel–US war · updated 2026-09-14Latest developments
Tap any headline for perspectives & sources
CriticalIranian commercial ship struck by unidentified projectile off Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz; one deadSep 14, 1:10 AM
Iranian state media say an unidentified projectile hit a commercial hull off Qeshm before dawn Sunday, killing seafarer Jamshid Rajabi and wounding four — the first strike on a merchant ship inside Iranian coastal waters since the tanker campaign resumed. Iran blamed a 'terrorist enemy' but named no attacker; US CENTCOM did not comment. The strike came hours before the Iran-GCC Hormuz talks were postponed and preceded a Monday jump in crude.
3 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternForeign — EasternCenter2 sourcesWire coverage stresses the attacker is unknown and the US is silent, amid the US-Iran contest over the chokepoint.
The Washington Post and ABC News (AP) reported that a commercial vessel was struck off Qeshm with one crew member killed, that Iran had not established responsibility, and that Washington — which has previously disabled ships defying its blockade — declined to comment, the first reported strike on a merchant hull inside Iranian coastal waters in the current campaign.
Foreign — Western1 sourceIsraeli outlet coverage notes the strike deep in Iranian waters and the unclaimed attacker.
Haaretz reported an Iranian ship struck near the Strait of Hormuz killing one, per Iranian media, noting it was an unusual hit on a merchant hull inside Iran's own coastal waters with no party claiming responsibility.
Foreign — Eastern1 sourceIranian state framing: a 'terrorist enemy' attacked a civilian Iranian ship in Iran's own waters, killing an Iranian mariner.
IRNA, relayed via AP/US News, named the killed seafarer as Jamshid Rajabi and cast the strike on a civilian vessel in Iranian coastal waters as an act of aggression against Iran, days into renewed US-Iran shipping clashes around Hormuz.
CriticalRussian drone hits passenger train ~2 km from Poland, narrowly missing a 'diplomatic train' carrying European ex-leadersSep 14, 1:10 AM
A Russian Geran-type drone struck a passenger train and a nearby gas station near the Yahodyn crossing about 2 km from the Poland/NATO border early Sept 14; there were no deaths on the train and two truck drivers were injured at the gas station. Ukraine's railway said a 'diplomatic train' carrying figures including Boris Johnson and Carl Bildt had departed minutes earlier. Poland scrambled jets and issued regional alerts; Kyiv called it a deliberate strike 'on NATO's doorstep.'
2 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternCenter2 sourcesA strike this close to NATO territory sharpens spillover and escalation fears.
The Washington Post and Euronews reported a Russian drone hitting a train and a gas station roughly 2 km from the Polish border soon after visiting dignitaries passed through, prompting Poland to scramble jets and raising fresh concern about spillover onto NATO soil.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesUkrainian framing: an intentional strike on a NATO-linked rail corridor at the alliance's doorstep.
Meduza and Euromaidan Press reported the drones striking a gas station and passenger train near Ukraine's border with Poland, casting the timing — just after a diplomatic train carrying European ex-leaders left — as a deliberate message aimed at NATO's frontier.
CriticalUS destroys five Iranian tankers in Gulf of Oman; Iran fires 20 missiles at Jordan air base and attacks ~10 ships near HormuzSep 13, 5:09 PM
Iran's IRGC said its navy struck a US 'Saildrone-type' unmanned surface vessel in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, calling it an 'aggressive mission' it thwarted, while UKMTO reported projectiles hitting two more ships off Oman. It follows the Sept 8-9 peak of the tanker war — CENTCOM sinking five Iranian tankers, Iran's roughly 20-missile strike on a US-used base in Jordan, and a wave of attacks on about 10 vessels near Hormuz. Corridor throughput has collapsed to a handful of transits a day.
1 perspective:Foreign — Global SouthForeign — Global South1 sourceAl Jazeera frames the strikes as Iran enforcing its Hormuz 'prohibited zone' and hitting US bases.
Al Jazeera's live coverage reported the IRGC attacking a US unmanned vessel in Hormuz and two ships hit off Oman, alongside its account of how Iran damaged US bases in Bahrain and Jordan, casting the strikes as self-defense and zone enforcement.
CriticalHouthis complete their Bab el-Mandeb takeover, seizing Perim Island as both Red Sea lanes fall under their controlSep 13, 5:09 PM
After capturing the Red Sea port of Mocha on Sept 10, Iran-aligned Houthi forces seized strategic Perim (Mayun) Island on Sept 11 as internationally recognized Yemeni government forces withdrew, giving them control of both shipping lanes at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which carries roughly 6M bpd. They reportedly also took Zuqar Island and pressed toward Dhubab. Combined with Iran's Hormuz closure, the twin-chokepoint pressure helped push Brent above $104.
3 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternForeign — Global SouthCenter2 sourcesIran and its allies now squeeze both Gulf chokepoints at once.
NBC News and CNBC reported the Houthi capture of Perim Island after government forces withdrew, giving the movement command of both Bab el-Mandeb lanes and compounding the pressure created by Iran's Hormuz closure.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesPerim's capture lets the Houthis monitor and potentially mine a lifeline of global trade.
Euronews and CNN Business framed the seizure as putting one of the world's key maritime chokepoints under Houthi observation, warning of higher insurance and rerouting costs if the movement can threaten traffic through the strait.
Foreign — Global South1 sourceRegional and global-south coverage stresses neighboring states watching without intervening as the Houthis gain a chokepoint.
Al Jazeera reported Red Sea littoral states watching warily as Houthi forces consolidated control of Yemen's coastline at Bab el-Mandeb, positioned to threaten a waterway that major carriers are already avoiding via the Cape of Good Hope.
CriticalIraq confirms drones that struck Saudi Petroline came from its soil; dismisses Maysan commander, shuts Iran crossingsSep 13, 1:09 AM
Iraq's government confirmed on Sept 12 that the drones which hit Saudi Arabia's East-West (Petroline) crude pipeline on Sept 10-11 were launched from Iraqi territory. Baghdad opened an investigation, dismissed the commander of Maysan province's operations command near the Iranian border and temporarily closed three crossings into Iran. Saudi Arabia kept the roughly 5M bpd Hormuz-bypass line shut and said it would not retaliate to give Baghdad time to act; no group claimed the attack.
3 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternGovernmentCenter3 sourcesIraq officially attributes the strike to its own soil and takes remedial steps while Riyadh holds fire.
Reuters- and AP-sourced coverage reported Iraq's confirmation that the drones flew from its territory, the dismissal of the Maysan operations commander and the temporary closure of three border crossings with Iran, while Saudi Arabia signaled restraint to let Baghdad investigate.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesThe strike removes Saudi Arabia's main Hormuz-bypass export route while the strait is shut, fitting an Iranian-proxy pressure pattern.
CNN and Al Jazeera framed the attack as knocking out the kingdom's key alternative to Hormuz and as consistent with Iran-aligned Iraqi militias pressuring Gulf states, even as no group claimed responsibility.
Government2 sourcesRiyadh frames the shutdown as precautionary and its restraint toward Baghdad as protecting a shared interest in energy security.
Gulf News and CNBC relayed the Saudi position that the East-West line was shut as a precaution after the strikes triggered fires, and that the kingdom would hold off on retaliation to give Iraq an opportunity to rein in the militias operating from its soil.
HighRussia launches ~453-drone barrage striking Odesa as Ukraine hits Russian oil refineries deep behind the linesSep 14, 1:10 AM
Russia fired nearly 500 strike drones across Ukraine on Sept 12; an overnight barrage combining drones with Kalibr, Kh-59 and Iskander/KN-23 missiles hit two metallurgical plants, killing two and wounding six. Ukraine has kept up long-range drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and air defenses, and a US-brokered peace push has produced no ceasefire.
2 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternCenter2 sourcesReciprocal deep strikes escalate as US-brokered diplomacy stalls: Russia hits Ukrainian cities, Ukraine hits Russian refining.
Bloomberg reported Russia striking Ukrainian power and urban sites while Kyiv targeted a Russian refining hub, casting the overnight exchange as a renewed tit-for-tat after the collapse of the latest US-brokered push to pause the fighting.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesKyiv says Russia terrorizes civilians while Ukraine legitimately targets the oil sector funding the war.
Euronews and the Kyiv Independent reported the more-than-450-drone overnight barrage that battered Odesa and the Ukrainian strikes on two Russian refineries, with Zelensky framing the refinery campaign as pressure on Moscow's war-financing energy revenues.
HighUkraine strikes Slavyansk and Nizhnekamsk refineries deep inside Russia as Trump urges a halt to diesel-plant attacksSep 14, 1:10 AM
Ukraine's Defense Forces confirmed Sept 13 drone strikes on the Slavyansk-EKO refinery in Krasnodar Krai (~5.2M t/yr; three injured, a pipeline damaged, a major fire) and the Nizhnekamsk petrochemical hub in Tatarstan. Hours later Trump publicly pressed Zelensky to stop hitting Russian diesel refineries, citing a global diesel shortage. Ukrainian drones also killed two in Russia; Russia struck a Black Sea port hub in return.
2 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternCenter2 sourcesThe strikes deepen a Trump-Kyiv rift as global diesel prices climb.
CBS News and Bloomberg reported Trump urging Ukraine to stop targeting Russian refineries, tying Kyiv's campaign to a worldwide diesel squeeze even as the strikes ignited fires and damaged infrastructure deep inside Russia.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesKyiv casts the refinery campaign as legitimately degrading Russia's war-funding fuel output.
Ukrinform and Kyiv Post reported Ukraine's Defense Forces confirming strikes on the Slavyansk-EKO refinery in Kuban and the Nizhnekamsk hub in Tatarstan, presenting the deep-strike wave as a lawful effort to cut Russia's fuel production and revenue.
StandardIsrael keeps striking south Lebanon; Katz says no withdrawal from the security zone until Hezbollah is disarmedSep 14, 1:10 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reiterated Sept 14 that Israel will not withdraw from its south-Lebanon security zone — even under US pressure — until Hezbollah is disarmed nationwide, saying preparations are under way for an 'anticipated campaign.' Fresh Israeli airstrikes and artillery hit Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Kfar Tebnit and the Ali al-Taher forest Sept 13, days after the IDF demolished a Hezbollah tunnel network on the ridge and declared its security zone complete.
2 perspectives:Foreign — WesternForeign — EasternForeign — Western1 sourceIsraeli framing: no pullback until Hezbollah is disarmed across all of Lebanon.
Haaretz reported Katz saying Israel will not withdraw from the Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon until the group is disarmed nationwide, discussing preparations for an anticipated campaign and rejecting US pressure to pull back.
Foreign — Eastern1 sourcePro-Hezbollah framing stresses continued Israeli aggression on Lebanese soil.
Middle East Monitor reported Israel launching fresh airstrikes and artillery attacks on southern Lebanon, casting the continued strikes and refusal to withdraw as aggression against Lebanon despite the fragile calm.
StandardIsraeli strike kills Hamas Khan Younis brigade commander al-Yazouri, straining the fragile Gaza truceSep 12, 5:09 PM
An Israeli airstrike overnight Sept 10-11 in Khan Younis killed Muhammad Abdul Salam al-Yazouri, commander of Hamas's Khan Younis Brigade, whom the IDF and Shin Bet accused of rebuilding Hamas's capabilities and directing attacks on troops; two other operatives were also killed. Hamas's al-Qassam Brigades confirmed his death and condemned it as a 'cowardly assassination.' The strike adds to reported ceasefire violations amid the stalled 20-point Trump plan.
2 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternCenter1 sourceThe killing tests a ceasefire already frayed by dozens of alleged violations.
L'Orient Today reported Hamas's confirmation of al-Yazouri's death and its condemnation of the strike as an assassination, situating it among mounting alleged breaches of the fragile truce built on the stalled Trump plan.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesIsrael casts the targeted killing of a senior October-7-linked commander as degrading Hamas's revival.
The Times of Israel and The Jerusalem Post reported the IDF and Shin Bet account that al-Yazouri was rebuilding the Khan Younis Brigade and advancing attacks on Israeli troops, presenting the strike as a blow to Hamas's military reconstitution.
StandardTrump rejects MBS calls for US strikes on the Houthis, offering only intelligence and targeting supportSep 12, 5:09 PM
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman phoned President Trump twice on Sept 10-11 urging US airstrikes on the Houthis as they completed their Bab el-Mandeb takeover, but Trump declined direct military action, according to US officials. Washington instead offered intelligence-sharing and targeting support, with roughly 200 US personnel already in the kingdom. Trump said the Houthis 'don't want to fight' the United States.
2 perspectives:CenterGovernmentCenter2 sourcesThe US limits its involvement despite an ally's repeated pleas.
Axios and Reuters (via US News) reported that MBS pressed Trump twice for strikes on the Houthis and was rebuffed, with officials saying Washington has no plans for direct action and will confine itself to intelligence and targeting help.
Government1 sourceThe administration frames restraint as avoiding a new Yemen war while backing Saudi defense.
The Times of Israel reported the US decision to withhold direct strikes even as the Houthis seized the Red Sea island, with Washington presenting intelligence support to Riyadh as sufficient and Trump downplaying any US-Houthi confrontation.
The map
Major strikes, attacks, and US basing across the region. Every marker links to its source — dashed markers are reported but not yet confirmed.
Conflict map
60 major strikes · 15 US bases · updated 2026-09-14Major sourced strike/military events only; coordinates identify the reported city or facility, not precise impact points. Re-verified ~05:10 UTC Sept 14, 2026 — no new in-scope well-geolocated markers this cycle. All major sourced Iran-war-theater strikes in the window (Qeshm ship Sep 13, Nabatieh Sep 12, Perim Island Sep 11, Petroline pump Sep 11, Khan Younis Sep 10) are already mapped; the postponed Iran-GCC Oman talks and the Russia-Ukraine drone/refinery exchange (Slavyansk, Nizhnekamsk, the Poland-border train strike) are outside this map's Iran-war-theater scope. Held at the 60-marker cap.
Marker locations are approximate — coordinates identify the city or facility reported struck, not precise impact points. Confirmed = acknowledged by the attacking or defending party or verified by major wire services; Reported = credible reporting not yet officially acknowledged. Every marker links to its source. Military base markers show pre-war US posture and known strike history, not live force positions.
Sources
The human cost
Confirmed, estimated, and rumored casualty counts per party — every figure sourced, tiers shown separately because they disagree.
Death toll
2026 Iran War · February 28, 2026 – ongoingCore figures carry forward and are re-verified each refresh; treat totals as a floor, not a current count. Re-verified ~05:10 UTC Sept 14, 2026 — no new government-acknowledged (confirmed-tier) death-toll changes since the Sept 13 read. Aggregator trackers now cite Lebanon's Health Ministry cumulative near ~4,383 killed / ~12,406 wounded (vs the ~4,358 / 12,359 confirmed floor held here); pending confirmation on the ministry's own or a wire tally, the confirmed tier is held at 4,358 and the higher figure is noted as unverified. The one new war-related death in-window remains one Iranian civilian mariner (Iranian state media name him as Jamshid Rajabi) killed in the Sept 13 strike on a commercial ship off Qeshm — an estimated-tier figure not folded into any government confirmed toll. Iran: ~3,489 confirmed (Foundation of Martyrs) / ~3,770 estimated (HRANA). US 13 confirmed / ~15 estimated. Israel 59. Lebanon's Health Ministry cumulative ~4,358 killed / 12,359 wounded since March 2. Iraq 119 confirmed / 129 estimated. Confirmed = governments' own acknowledged tolls; estimated = monitors and journalists; independent verification inside Iran remains constrained.
Key facts
Sept 6, 2026: Israeli strikes across the Nabatieh district — Nabatieh city, Arab Salim (two women killed), Kfar Rumman and Deir al-Zahrani — killed between 7 (Lebanese Health Ministry) and 9-11 (Lebanese outlets, including two infants) and wounded about 13-20; a strike destroyed part of Ghandour Hospital and damaged a Finance Ministry building. Israel said it answered two Hezbollah drones fired at its troops in occupied south Lebanon; Lebanon's confirmed cumulative floor holds at 4,347 pending a restated Health Ministry total.
L'Orient Today / NBC News / Al-Monitor2026-09-06
Iran's health minister said the Sept 1-2 US strike wave killed 18 people and wounded 108 across several provinces, including 4-5 at a wedding in Kuhestak (Sirik) on the Hormuz coast and about 7 near Ahvaz/Aghajari in Khuzestan. The figures lift Iran's confirmed war toll to roughly 3,489; US officials reported no American casualties from Iran's retaliatory salvo on Gulf bases.
RFE/RL / Antiwar.com / Xinhua2026-09-02
A US strike on a home hosting a wedding in Kuhestak (Sirik) overnight Sept 1-2 killed at least five, including a child, and wounded ~63-68, most of them women and children, per Iranian officials. Iran's retaliatory missile-and-drone salvo on US bases in Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain produced no confirmed US casualties per two US officials, contradicting IRGC claims (rumored tier).
Al Jazeera / Reuters / Al-Monitor2026-09-02
US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Aug 30, the first strike on Iranian territory in about a month; the IRGC reported killed and wounded soldiers and civilians, but the figures are unverified and no confirmed casualty tier has been updated.
CNN / Washington Post2026-08-30
Over 15% of documented Iranian fatalities in the first weeks of the 2026 war were children, per HRANA field reports.
HRANA2026-03-22
Lebanon has suffered the second-highest death toll of the war — about 2,909 confirmed killed and roughly 1.2 million displaced since March 2026, after 11 more were killed in Israeli strikes on Aug 15.
Lebanese LDRMU via Al Jazeera2026-08-15
US forces have suffered 13 confirmed combat deaths, with the official wounded-or-killed toll now at 776 after the Pentagon acknowledged 60 more injured (independent tallies exceed 900) — the first US combat fatalities in a state-on-state war since 2003.
Pentagon via The Intercept2026-08-25
The July 29 joint US–Saudi strikes on Iran-aligned militia sites in eastern Iraq killed about 20 PMF fighters and wounded 32, per Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces — the war's deadliest single day inside Iraq.
US Central Command / PMF figures2026-07-29
Casualty figures in an active conflict are contested, delayed, and often politicized. Confirmed = officially acknowledged by the party's government or armed forces. Estimated = independent monitors and journalists (HRANA, LDRMU, INSS, wire services). Rumored = unverified claims, mostly from opposition or partisan groups, shown for transparency only. All tiers routinely disagree; every figure links to its source so you can judge for yourself.
Sources
The financial cost
What the conflict is costing each party and the wider economy. All figures are sourced estimates and vary widely between analysts.
Daily war cost
Day 199 · since 2026-02-28- Munitions expended$14B
- Naval operations$8.3B
- Air operations$7.4B
- Personnel deployment$3.5B
- Logistics & sustainment$8.9B
- Munitions expended$5.5B
- Naval operations$1.5B
- Air operations$6.5B
- Personnel mobilization$2.5B
- Logistics & sustainment$2.0B
- Munitions expended$1.4B
- Naval operations$310M
- Air operations$470M
- Personnel$1.1B
- Logistics & sustainment$810M
Weapon costs
| Weapon | Party | Unit cost | Used | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGM-109 Tomahawk (Block V) | US | $2.0M | 1,000 | $2.0B |
| GBU-57 MOP (bunker-buster) | US | $3.5M | 50 | $175M |
| RIM-161 SM-3 Block IIA | US | $12M | 35 | $420M |
| THAAD interceptor | US | $13M | 198 | $2.6B |
| Iron Dome Tamir interceptor | Israel | $50K | 4,500 | $225M |
| Arrow-3 interceptor | Israel | $2.5M | 40 | $100M |
| Shahed-136 (Geran-2) drone | Iran | $20K | 1,200 | $24M |
| Corsair unmanned surface vessel (attack sea drone) | US | $3.0M | 3 | $9.0M |
Economic ripple effects
Crude gapped higher at the Monday electronic open after Oman postponed the Iran-GCC Hormuz talks and a ship was struck off Qeshm, up from Friday's Brent ~$104.61 / WTI ~$100.05 settles.Vantage / CNBC
IMF estimate of the drag from the oil shock and trade disruption.IMF
Gulf war-risk premiums rose from ~0.05% to ~5% of hull value, ~$2.5M extra per transit.Lloyd's / Reuters
Brown Costs of War energy tracker: extra US gasoline/diesel costs since Feb 28; diesel accounts for >$46B (~$350/household).Brown Costs of War / Axios
Moody's Analytics now estimates the war has cost US consumers and taxpayers about $132B so far (up from ~$100B on June 2), driven mainly by the Hormuz-linked energy shock; gasoline peaked near $4.56/gal.Moody's Analytics via Fortune
Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi pegs the cost at roughly $1,000 per US household — about $300 gasoline, ~$200 diesel/transport pass-through, ~$100 airfares, plus the taxpayer share.Mark Zandi / Fortune
The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, the lowest since the pandemic, citing the oil shock and trade disruption.World Bank via Fortune
Saudi state shipper Bahri confirmed on Sept 2 that two Filipino sailors were killed and 14 evacuated after its Sidr crude tanker was struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Aug 31; the crew contained a fire. Saudi Arabia blamed Iran, which did not publicly claim responsibility.Philstar / Asharq Al-Awsat
Goldman Sachs warned Brent could top $120 in 2027 if Gulf output stays ~4M bpd below pre-war levels, after lifting its December Brent/WTI forecasts by $5 to $85/$80; US consumers are absorbing a ~$100B fuel hit.CBS News
Key facts
Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates the war's direct budgetary impact at $38B-$47B, with long-term economic impact reaching up to ~$210B — a higher anchor than earlier ~$27-28B direct estimates.
Penn Wharton Budget Model (via Taxpayers for Common Sense)2026-09-14
Day 199 (Sept 14, 2026): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled combined direct-military total advances with the day count to ~$76.4B (US $48.4B + Israel $23.6B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. Standing official anchors carry forward below the inclusive modeled figure: Hegseth's $37.5B US-direct (Jul 21 testimony), the Pentagon comptroller's ~$29B (May 12), CSIS ~$40B ($34-42B) DoD-only, AEI ~$42B Pentagon, and Penn Wharton, whose latest read puts direct budgetary impact at $38-47B with long-run economic impact up to ~$210B. On the indirect side, Brown University's Costs of War energy tracker holds near ~$100B in extra US gasoline/diesel costs — about $763 per household — with crude gapping up Monday after the Hormuz talks were postponed.
CSIS / NOTUS (AEI) / Penn Wharton / Brown Costs of War2026-09-14
Day 198 (Sept 13, 2026): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. Standing official anchors carry forward below the inclusive modeled figure: Hegseth's $37.5B US-direct (Jul 21 testimony), CSIS ~$40B ($34-42B) DoD-only, AEI ~$42B Pentagon, Penn Wharton ~$27-28B direct, and Bilmes's long-run projection past $1 trillion. On the indirect side, Brown University's Costs of War / ITEP fuel meter still runs near ~$100B in extra US gasoline and diesel costs (~$675 per household) after crude's first weekly close above $100 since May, with Brent holding ~$104.61 and WTI ~$100.05 into the weekend.
CSIS / NOTUS (AEI) / Penn Wharton / ITEP / Brown Costs of War2026-09-13
Day 197 (Sept 12, 2026; evening): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline was issued this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. Standing official anchors carry forward below the inclusive modeled figure: Defense Secretary Hegseth's $37.5B US-direct (Jul 21 sworn testimony), CSIS's ~$40B ($34-42B) DoD-only estimate for the opening phase, AEI's ~$42B Pentagon estimate, and Harvard economist Linda Bilmes's long-run projection past $1 trillion once veterans' care and interest are counted. On the indirect side, crude logged its first weekly close above $100 since May (Brent $104.61, WTI $100.05 on Sept 11) before easing on the Iran-Gulf Hormuz talks set for Oman.
Stars and Stripes / CSIS / NOTUS (AEI) / Forbes (Bilmes) / CNBC2026-09-12
Day 196 (Sept 11, 2026; evening): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. Indirect costs kept mounting as drones reportedly from Iraq forced Saudi Arabia to shut its ~7M bpd Hormuz-bypassing East-West (Petroline) pipeline and crude booked a ~9% weekly gain (first weekly close above $100 since May) — energy-shock costs distinct from the direct-military topline.
CNBC / Bloomberg / CNN2026-09-11
Day 196 (Sept 11, 2026): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. The indirect bill kept climbing: with Brent above $100 a second day and Hormuz shut, Middle East-to-China supertanker earnings hit a record ~$759,969/day — war-risk costs distinct from the direct-military topline.
CNBC / The Daily Caller2026-09-11
Day 196 (Sep 10-11, 2026): the US-Iran tanker war hit peak intensity. After CENTCOM destroyed five Iranian tankers on Sep 8 and Iran struck a US-used base in Jordan on Sep 9, Iran said it hit 10 vessels near Hormuz on Sep 10 — the largest declared shipping wave of the war — and Houthis seized Yemen's port of Mocha. US crude held above $100 for a second day (WTI ~$102.5, Brent ~$107.6).
CNBC / Reuters / Al Jazeera2026-09-11
Brown University's Costs of War energy tracker put the extra US fuel bill from the Iran war near ~$102B (~$770 per household) by early September — gasoline ~$55B and diesel ~$46B — a household cost distinct from the direct-military topline, with the AAA gas average around $4.28/gal and diesel at a record ~$5.98/gal.
CNN / Axios / Brown Costs of War2026-09-10
By Sept 10, 2026 (day 195), the US-Iran tanker war reached its most intense level: after CENTCOM destroyed five Iranian tankers on Sept 8 and Iran struck a US-used base in Jordan and ~10 ships near Hormuz on Sept 9, US crude settled above $100/barrel for the first time since 2024, underscoring the conflict’s widening economic cost beyond direct military spending.
NPR / Al Jazeera2026-09-10
Harvard economist Linda Bilmes projects the Iran war could ultimately cost the US at least $1 trillion once veterans’ medical care, disability benefits and long-term aftereffects are counted — far above the direct-military topline.
Forbes (William Hartung)2026-09-05
Extra fuel costs to US consumers since the start of the Iran war have topped $40B (more than $300 per household) as an energy-price ripple effect, separate from the direct-military spending tracked here.
Day 194 (Sept 9, 2026): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. On the indirect side, Brown University’s Iran War energy-cost tracking holds above ~$100B in extra US gasoline/diesel costs since late February — roughly $763 per household — with the national gas average a record ~$4.15/gal and diesel ~$5.90/gal (up ~60% year on year).
CNN / Brown University Costs of War2026-09-09
Day 193 (Sept 8, 2026): no new CBO, DoD, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. On the indirect side, CNN reported Brown University's Iran War energy-cost tracker crossing ~$100B in extra US gasoline/diesel costs since Feb 28 — about $763 per household — with the national gas average at a Labor Day record ~$4.15/gal.
CNN / Brown University Costs of War2026-09-08
Sept 8, 2026: Taxpayers for Common Sense's direct-and-indirect accounting argues the war's indirect bill may outpace direct costs over time: on a ~$72B first-60-day base it estimates roughly $2.4B in added public-debt interest over the next year (~$26.9B over a decade), on top of long-term veterans' disability and medical care — costs distinct from the direct-military topline.
Taxpayers for Common Sense2026-09-08
Provisional baseline restored from the prior Follow-the-Cost tracker and being re-verified by the scheduled refresh. Figures are direct military expenditure estimates compiled from CBO, DoD, CSIS, SIPRI and the Brown University Costs of War project; ranges vary widely and are not official totals.
Sources
The damage
Documented damage to military, nuclear, energy, and civilian sites per country — counts are a floor, since independent access is restricted in much of the region.
Damage tracker
484 documented sites · 18 countriesRe-verified ~05:10 UTC Sept 14, 2026. No new sourced battle-damage assessments at named facilities within the Iran-war theater since the Sept 13 read; the Sept 13 Qeshm ship strike (a merchant hull, not a fixed site), continued Israeli strikes near Nabatieh, and the Russia-Ukraine refinery exchanges (Slavyansk-EKO, Nizhnekamsk) are outside this tracker's documented-site scope or too preliminary for a site entry. Saudi Arabia's East-West (Petroline) pipeline pump station remains counted. Counts are documented floors, not precise totals.
- Military57
- Nuclear12
- Energy12
- Infrastructure23
- Civilian26
- Other23
- Military26
- Infrastructure11
- Civilian42
- Other37
- Military7
- Nuclear1
- Energy3
- Infrastructure7
- Civilian39
- Other20
- Military7
- Energy6
- Infrastructure9
- Civilian2
- Other2
- Military1
- Energy5
- Infrastructure10
- Civilian2
- Other2
- Military9
- Infrastructure4
- Other2
- Military2
- Infrastructure3
- Civilian5
- Military3
- Energy2
- Infrastructure1
- Civilian2
- Other2
- Military2
- Energy4
- Other2
- Military4
- Infrastructure6
- Civilian1
- Other4
- Energy1
Damietta LNG terminal strike, July 29 — first attack on Egyptian soil; attribution unclaimed.
Notable sites
- US aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti (Azraq) Air BaseAzraq, JordanmoderateMilitary
Iran's Sept 9 ballistic-missile strike on the US-used Muwaffaq Salti (Azraq) air base damaged US aircraft: one A-10 lost part of a wing and roughly eight F-15Es sustained lighter damage; 18 of 20 missiles were intercepted with no casualties.
Air & Space Forces Magazine / Al Jazeera2026-09-09
- Two Iranian government tankers (engine rooms)Off southern Iran coast, IransevereEnergy
First US 'tanker-for-tanker' strike: US drones fired missiles into the engine rooms of two anchored Iranian government tankers north of the naval blockade line, in retaliation for Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping.
Axios2026-09-02
- Kuhestak (Sirik) residential home & shoreline telecom towerKuhestak, Sirik County, IrandestroyedCivilian
A US strike destroyed a residential home hosting a wedding party in Kuhestak and a telecom tower on the shoreline; Iran's Red Crescent reported 4-5 killed, including a 4-year-old, and 67-68 wounded. CENTCOM said it does not target civilians.
Casualties: 4-5 killed (incl. a 4-year-old), 67-68 wounded (Iran Red Crescent)
Al Jazeera2026-09-02
- Larak Island rocket launchersLarak Island, IrandestroyedMilitary
US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz after the IRGC was observed preparing to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the waterway — the first US strike on Iranian territory in about a month. Iran vowed to retaliate.
Casualties: Iran (IRGC) reported killed and wounded; numbers unverified
CNN / Washington Post2026-08-30
- Sanaa International Airport — Yemenia Airbus aircraft destroyedYemensevereInfrastructure
Israeli airstrike on Sanaa International Airport destroyed 3 Yemenia Airbus aircraft on the ground and killed 3 people. Defense Minister Katz claimed Israel 'destroyed the Houthis' remaining plane.' Strike came in retaliation for Houthi missile attacks on Israel.
Casualties: 3 killed
Times of Israel2026-05-06
- Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) — drone strike and fireUAEsevereInfrastructure
Iranian drone penetrated UAE air defenses and struck the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ/VTTI petroleum complex), causing a major fire. Smoke plume visible for kilometers. 3 Indian nationals moderately injured. First attack on UAE since April 8 ceasefire. UAE intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 3 other drones.
Casualties: 0 killed, 3 injured (Indian nationals)
Bloomberg2026-05-04
Show 14 more sites
- Kharg Island Military Targets (50+ sites)IransevereMilitary
US struck 50+ military targets on Kharg Island — bunkers, storage facilities, runways, air defense systems. Oil infrastructure not targeted per US officials.
NBC News2026-04-07
- Khorramshahr Shipyards (IRGC Navy)IrandestroyedMilitary
Two shipbuilding companies destroyed. 80% of IRGC Navy vessels built here.
Alma Center2026-04-07
- Haifa Residential Building — Iranian Missile Direct HitIsraelsevereCivilian
7-story residential building partially collapsed after direct hit by Iranian ballistic missile. 2 confirmed dead, 2 missing under rubble, 24 wounded.
Jerusalem Post2026-04-06
- Ramat Gan / Bnei Brak — Cluster Bomblet Impact ZoneIsraelsevereCivilian
28+ cluster bomblet impact sites across densely populated Tel Aviv suburbs. Heavy damage to buildings in Ramat Gan, Bnei Brak, Givatayim. High-voltage line damaged in Rosh Ha'ayin causing power outage. 2 killed, 1 moderately wounded.
Haaretz2026-04-06
- Commercial Vessels — Strait of Hormuz (Day 12)Strait of Hormuz, International WaterssevereInfrastructure
3 more commercial ships attacked by IRGC Navy on Day 12, bringing total to 14 vessels damaged or sunk since war began. 330+ vessels at anchor. Shipping traffic down 95%. Insurance withdrawn by all major providers.
Casualties: Crews evacuated, injuries reported
Lloyd's List / Reuters2026-03-11
- Al-Kharj Residential AreaAl-Kharj, Saudi ArabiasevereCivilian
Projectile struck residential facility south of Riyadh. First civilian deaths in Saudi Arabia during the conflict.
Casualties: 2 killed, 12 injured
CNN2026-03-07
- Bushehr Nuclear Power PlantBushehr, IransevereNuclear
Tomahawk missiles struck reactor cooling systems and auxiliary buildings. IAEA dispatched emergency teams for radiological contamination assessment.
Casualties: 15 plant workers killed, radiation concerns
CENTCOM Press Release2026-03-01
- IRGC Aerospace Force HQTehran, IrandestroyedMilitary
Underground command bunkers destroyed by GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators delivered by B-2 Spirit bombers. At least 40 senior IRGC officers killed including two brigadier generals.
Casualties: 40+ IRGC officials killed
CENTCOM Press Release2026-02-28
- Damietta LNG terminal — Energos Winter FSRU & GasLog Salem tankerDamietta, EgyptsevereEnergy
A drone struck the US-owned floating storage unit Energos Winter at Egypt's Damietta gas terminal, igniting a fire that spread to the Greek-owned LNG tanker GasLog Salem — the first apparent attack on Egyptian soil in the war. Attribution remains unclaimed; Egypt is analyzing recovered drone fragments.
gCaptain / The Defense Post2026-07-29
- Chinese company compound, northern KuwaitNorthern Kuwait, KuwaitsevereCivilian
An Iranian strike on a Chinese company's building in northern Kuwait killed one worker and caused severe material damage amid Iran's wider July 30-31 retaliation against US assets in the Gulf.
Casualties: 1 killed
CNBC2026-07-30
- Ansar residential compound (IDF-designated Radwan Force HQ)Ansar, LebanondestroyedMilitary
An Israeli airstrike destroyed a house/compound near Ansar that the IDF called a central Radwan Force headquarters, killing seven people including three children; Israel said it killed Radwan commander Ali Samir al-Haj Hassan and later acknowledged civilian casualties.
The Times of Israel2026-08-15
- Ghandour Hospital (partial) & Finance Ministry building, NabatiehNabatieh, LebanonsevereInfrastructure
An Israeli air wave across the Nabatieh district on Sept 6 destroyed part of Ghandour Hospital and damaged a Finance Ministry building, amid strikes that killed 7-11 people (including two infants) and wounded 13-20. Israel said it answered two Hezbollah drones launched at its troops.
Casualties: 7-11 killed, 13-20 wounded (district-wide)
L'Orient Today / NBC News2026-09-06
- Hezbollah tunnel network, Ali al-Taher ridgeAli al-Taher Heights (near Nabatieh), LebanondestroyedMilitary
The IDF demolished a Hezbollah tunnel network beneath the Ali al-Taher ridge in a controlled detonation large enough to register as a seismic event, following a broad daytime wave of airstrikes and shelling across south Lebanon; Israel declared its south-Lebanon security zone complete.
Times of Israel / Jerusalem Post2026-09-10
- East-West (Petroline) pipeline pump station(s)Riyadh & Madinah regions, Saudi ArabiasevereEnergy
Drones reportedly launched from Iraq struck pump stations feeding Saudi Arabia's ~7M bpd strait-bypassing East-West (Petroline) crude line to Yanbu; satellite imagery showed extensive fire damage at a pumping station and Riyadh shut the line as a precaution. Full damage to the pipeline body itself was not confirmed.
Bloomberg / The National / CNN2026-09-11
Key facts
Sept 6, 2026: an Israeli air wave across Lebanon's Nabatieh district destroyed part of Ghandour Hospital and damaged a Finance Ministry building — the first documented strikes on fixed medical and government facilities in the district in this phase — while killing 7-11 people and wounding 13-20 across Nabatieh city, Arab Salim and Kfar Rumman.
L'Orient Today / NBC News2026-09-06
Sept 2-3, 2026: CENTCOM said a second US strike round in three days hit roughly 100 IRGC-linked sites — air-defense, radar, anti-ship, drone and mine-laying assets — along Iran’s southern Hormuz coast, but the broad claim is not independently verified; Iranian state TV documented civilian-site damage including a fishmeal factory on Qeshm and a maritime tower and wedding home in Sirik. Documented-site counts are held pending discrete battle-damage assessment.
NPR / Fox News2026-09-03
The July 13 Corsair sea-drone strike on Bandar Abbas naval base was the first combat use of armed unmanned surface vessels, damaging Iran's submarine and ship-maintenance facility.
Bloomberg2026-07-13
Renewed US 'heavy wave' strikes on July 30–31 hit dozens of IRGC targets, with explosions reported at Bandar Abbas and near Kish and Qeshm islands, while Iran's retaliation reached Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber airbase.
Al Jazeera2026-07-31
Battle-damage assessment in an active war is contested and slow. Confirmed = acknowledged by the striking or struck party, or verified via satellite imagery and major wire services; Reported = credible but unacknowledged; Rumored = unverified claims shown for transparency only. Site counts reflect documented locations, which undercount actual damage — especially inside Iran and Lebanon where independent access is restricted. Every notable site links to its source.
Sources